MOIST AND MILD WEEKEND{/strong}

December started with evening rain when a cold front pushed southeast across Kern County. Rainfall totals were generally in the tenth to quarter inch range, with mountain towns faring a bit better. Wofford Heights (4800') recorded .87", the most of all. Woody reporte3d .47", Lake Isabella .31" and Arvin .25". The rain shut off for Friday, but it was chilly with a high in Bakersfield through this writing of only 50. Most of the day has been in the 40s making this the coolest day of 2022. But the cold front that passed through late last night with gusty northwesterly winds has stalled just north of San Diego. In fact, the front will be passing through our area again.

A moist air mass to our south is pushing that sharp frontal boundary back to the north as a warm front. Rain will develop and expand in the cool air north of that warm front with rain starting in Kern County by 10 PM. The rain will persist overnight until the warm front passes by to the north. That should happen just before sunrise. Therefore, temperatures will not be cooling at all this evening. They should remain steady or slowly rise as the rain forms and increases. I'm expecting .10-.25" of rain over the South Valley tonight. Saturday will be noticeably milder with highs in the mid 60s, about 15 degrees warmer than we were on Friday. Once in the warm sector precipitation will have shifted to our north. There will still be a slight chance for minor showers in the afternoon.

All of Kern County will remain in the warm sector with fairly pleasant temperatures through Sunday. However, a separate weather system from the Gulf of Alaska is churning southeastward and will bring another cold front to California Sunday. That front should fire up some showers. A 50% chance for showers is forecast county-wide on Sunday. All this weekend, snow levels will hover around 8,000'- so no issues are anticipated with the passes. Meantime, in the high Sierra, tons of snow will be falling pushing the snowpack to above normal levels once again. Between 3 and 4 feet of new snow is forecast with a Winter Storm WARNING through 4 AM Monday.

Scattered mountain showers are possible on Monday, and then yet another disturbance should come into focus for Tuesday. This is a change from yesterday's forecast. The American model is portraying a low pressure system with a south trajectory taking it over the Los Angeles area on Tuesday. This is the ideal set up for rain in Kern County. One reason for that is the lack of any rain shadowing due to the lack of southerly winds. With a low that tracks into the LA or San Diego area our winds remain northerly. Those northerly winds enhance precipitation for the South Valley, whereas southerly winds diminish rainfall. I currently have a 40% chance for rain on Tuesday with cooler temperatures back into the 50s. Snow levels will still be above the major passes at 4,500'.

Finally, after several chances for rain between now and Tuesday things begin to dry out. A minor wave passes by on Friday with a slight chance for mountain showers and then a huge ridge of high pressure overspreads California. That will probably spell fog for the central valley. In all .15-.50" of rain is expected in the South Valley with the least south of Bakersfield and the most to the north. Up to an inch of rain is forecast in the mountains. Extended forecast guidance shows more rain likely around the middle of the month after a foggy episode. It is all good news.

Chief Meteorologist MILES MUZIO December 2, 2022 6:51 PM{/strong}